Notas del Mercado de Algodón 12/06/07




Por: Jurgens Bauer



Cotton cannot seem to get out of its own way!

By now we all know the story of how cotton prices are cheap relative to grains and how this difference will result in less cotton being planted. “Yadda, yadda, yadda”

Funds have taken on serious positions and will likely add to longs as will many a speculator seeking a big move. Yes, the story makes sense and should provide ample opportunity for price improvement next year, but what about now? Hey wait a minute, we trade futures markets and the futures price for December of 2008 is already reflecting much of this potential advance…, so what about now?

There is a good crop that isn’t being sold and that means there will be a carry over and cert stocks imply that this cotton will find its way not abroad via exports (unless our price becomes attractive), but rather it will likely be delivered against the board. We may see occasional waves of short covering carry values higher temporarily, but until supplies become tight I cannot expect a sustained move upward. Therefore, I fully expect cotton prices to remain vulnerable to further declines as funds liquidate longs and producers hedge. And when, not if, March penetrates below 6300, watch for another serious decline.

Support: 6315-6297-6282, 6250-6230, 6084-6071

Resistance: 6425-6442, 6490-6510

While there is the distinct possibility of more minor recoveries, I suggest the next move of substance will be on the downside. So, continue to sell short into any reasonable strength.

Si quiere más información, por favor contáctenos

Maria Aranda

El equipo de Brokers de Futuros USA
Email: [email protected]

TEL: 312-261-7395

Fuente: MF Global

©2007 Jurgens Bauer & Associates all rights reserved.

Jurgens Bauer


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