Notas del Mercado de Algodón Jurgens Bauer 01/09/08


I suggest exploring owning some March puts.

While cotton managed to advance again, (the slow grind up continues) I cannot help but wonder, A.) How much was due to outside markets, and B.) And how much was attributable to re-positioning by funds?

The effect of outside markets certainly helped (Wheat closed at 9.09 up 6, March Beans 12.69 up 19 ¼, and March Corn 478 ½ up 12 ¼). In fact, numerous commodity markets cocoa, coffee, metals…, are all contributing to a climate that is ripe for further advancement. Fund re-positioning should continue for the balance of the week, but with how much of an impact?

I see December having seven or more cents left on the upside and March perhaps two. The uptrend is well defined, but also overbought and as such vulnerable once the buying ceases. As March approaches delivery, still a month and change away, I expect things to reach a head, maybe sooner. As such last week I recommended buying a ratio of March puts and selling Dec puts. I still favor that style position.

Look for a correction, or a break out of the trend channel on the downside to carry as longs take profits and shorts get the idea that they can be more aggressive. Owning puts, especially cheap ones available in March makes sense as the risk reward appears lively.

Support: 6810-6790, 6665

Resistance: 6966-7000, 7035-55
Si quiere más información, por favor contáctenos,

Maria Aranda

El equipo de Brokers de Futuros USA

TEL: 312-261-7395

Fuente: MF Global

©2007 Jurgens Bauer & Associates all rights reserved.

Jurgens Bauer




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