Notas del Mercado de Algodón Jurgens Bauer 01/31/08

Futuros USA



 

Still playing “follow the leader”


Wednesday’s cotton market showed steady improvement after opening lower in screen trading. The only real news came as outcry closed when the Fed cut the discount rate by 0.50%. Admittedly I was expecting a 0.25% cut thinking that such a move would show their desire to be supportive without using up all their ammo. Looks like they went with what the market was anticipating as while Stocks responded favorably on first glance, they tapered those gains as time went on, ending their day down, but about at the same levels they were when cotton closed.


So, how will the markets respond tomorrow? Being month end, and having an export report that should be improved from recent ones (at least as far as cotton goes) may serve to assist prices is my way of thinking. However, since cotton has been playing “follow the leader” it makes sense to consider that whatever grains do cotton will follow. So, look to see how the net effect of export numbers plays out.


Specs continue to hold large long positions in cotton and grains and some of those (cotton especially) may be vulnerable, so I while still bullish for the long term, I’m not loading the boat yet. The reason why is that I believe that a potential melt down is still possible and such a move would trigger a sizable price drop. If that scenario were to transpire it would provide a much better opportunity to establish solid long term long positions, (i.e. long calls in Dec, or better yet, bull fences).


Longs are in control and a move through 69.50 is needed to keep the ball rolling in their favor, a break below 66.50 and watch out below!


 

Support: 68.15, 6775, 6735-6720, 6677-6650, then watch out below

Resistance: 6910-6940, 7000

 

Si quiere más información, por favor contáctenos,
Maria Aranda
El equipo de Brokers de Futuros USA
Email: mararanda@mfglobal.com
TEL: 312-261-7395


Fuente: MF Global

©2007 Jurgens Bauer & Associates all rights reserved.

Jurgens Bauer


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