Notas del Mercado de Algodon por: Jurgens Bauer 02/11/08

Futuros USA


This Week Should Speak Volumes about Direction

This week should tell a lot about where cotton prices are headed. Friday morning’s USDA report was bearish, but given the continued strength in grains, cotton went along for another ride and moved a bit higher. Shorts became nervous when prices didn’t react negatively to the report and March option expiration may have also served to help send values home at the better end of the recent range for March, but essentially it went out hugging 6900.

So with that stuff out of the way and the National Cotton Council’s 25th Early Season Planting Intentions Survey showing that they expect 9.32 Million acres of Upland Cotton to be planted, (the number in line with expectations), let’s see how things go this coming week. If prices hold and March is able to get a push and consistently close above 7000, then I’m a monkey’s uncle and prices should progress higher. If on the other hand they fail and move down, (especially if grains drop), then watch for an opportunity to see key support tested and perhaps create a better solid long term buying opportunity. Otherwise, look for the range between 6700 and 6950.

Local option traders had been long March options (and thus long volatility and long gamma). Now that those positions have been eliminated, due to expiration, odds are good that long positions will be sought to replace those having expired. Therefore, I think it appropriate to watch for premiums to increase as option volatility begins to reflect the demand for the long side of options in the pit.

Based on survey results, the Southeast showed a reduction of 12%, the Mid-South 26%, the Southwest 2% and the Far West a decline of 39%. So, by doing the math and carrying the NCC survey numbers out to expected production in 2008, (assuming an average abandonment rate), indicates total upland harvested area would be about 8.76 million acres. It looks like the NCC is expecting the state of Texas to account for more than 50% of all U.S. cotton plantings in 2008. Texas producers planted 4.9 million acres in 2007. Here is a news story about Texas: «Texas cotton prospects dimming with strong winds, no rain»

Si quiere más información, por favor contáctenos,
Maria Aranda
El equipo de Brokers de Futuros USA
Email: [email protected]
TEL: 312-261-7395

Fuente: MF Global

©2007 Jurgens Bauer & Associates all rights reserved.

Jurgens Bauer


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