Notas del Mercado de Algodón Jurgens Bauer 02/05/08

Futuros USA

Cotton prices resumed their course of following the grains which were stronger today, thus cotton prices improved. The active March contract settled at 68.87 up 71. Spec/Hedge numbers show specs long 24.8%, (it was 25.3% last week) and open Interest is returning to record levels.

What’s next in store will be promulgated by action in the grains, but it should be noted that Friday brings not only the monthly USDA crop report along with Supply/Demand, but also the NCC will release its planting intentions report as well. In addition, Friday will be expiration day for March cotton options. So, all in all Friday could be an exciting day. It is also important to appreciate that the cotton numbers alone will not be the focus. What matters is what potential impact the grain numbers may have on cotton.

Informa, a valued and leading Agricultural consulting firm, issued a report today that suggests an increase in cotton acreage grown outside the US. I find that awkward and am skeptical. While sources have suggested that Australia is expected to increase production, other foreign producers seem likely to focus their efforts at making safe their available supply of foodstuffs. Cotton, while a significant crop, certainly doesn’t play as vital a role as protecting the food supply. I have been thinking that any reductions in cotton production outside the US might allow the US export market to benefit, thus tightening ending stocks.

Near term, I look for a range in March between 67.00 and 69.50.

Support: 68.50, 68.30-20, 67.70, 6735-6720, 6677-6650

Resistance: 6910-6940, 69.90-7000, 70.85

Si quiere más información, por favor contáctenos,
Maria Aranda
El equipo de Brokers de Futuros USA
Email: [email protected]
TEL: 312-261-7395

Fuente: MF Global

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Jurgens Bauer

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