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Notas del Mercado de Algodón Jurgens Bauer 01/28/08

Futuros USA



 

“Will March be able to get back over 68, 69, 70 cents?”


On Friday morning the cotton market seemed almost seeking a choice of where it next wants to go. I believe it may be facing a crossroads. As a rule, it has been taking its direction from outside markets, and while it still will tend to follow rather than lead, I believe that cotton is beginning to emerge as a more reluctant participant than it has been of late in its desire to follow.


I first took notice of that anomaly as cotton prices showed hesitancy while outside markets were stronger. Then once export numbers were issued (sales showed roughly 150,000, and shipments 188,000 bales) cotton opened outcry trading and values seemed unable to muster much on the plus side. This while outside markets looked better.


The resulting action was a negative day, with March closing down only 50 points, but heavy under the weight of sellers over buyer. The late recovery from the lows seemed off short only, not new buying. For me this signaled that perhaps its time once again for cotton to re-focus on its own fundamentals.

Now, certainly any major shifts in outside markets will continue to play a role, but should they stabilize, cotton prices may find work needed on the downside. The export numbers so shipments running at less than 38% of USDA forecasts at the midpoint of the marketing year. That means that 355,000 bales need to be shipped in an average week in order to meet the estimates. I cannot see that happening.


China is going on extended New Years Holiday and demand is terrible. The overall health of the US economy seems poor and recession is on everyone’s lips.

Support: 6735-6720, 6677-6650

Resistance: 6815, 6850-6860, 6910, 7000

Si quiere más información, por favor contáctenos,
Maria Aranda, El equipo de Brokers de Futuros USA
Email: mararanda@mfglobal.com
TEL: 312-261-7395


Fuente: MF Global

©2007 Jurgens Bauer & Associates all rights reserved.

Jurgens Bauer


DISCLAIMER


La operación de futuros y opciones involucra riesgos de pérdida sustanciales, por lo que no es conveniente para todos los inversionistas. La información y opiniones contenidas en esta publicación, no constituyen, ni deben ser interpretadas para constituir una oferta de venta o la solicitud de compra de algún producto. La información objetiva incluida en este reporte ha sido obtenida de fuentes consideradas como confiables, aunque no esta garantizada en cuanto a su exactitud, ni tampoco en lo que respecta a su completo significado. No se asume responsabilidad con relación a ninguna declaración, así como en lo concerniente a cualquier opinión expresada aquí incluida. La confiabilidad relativa a la información en este reporte es solamente bajo riesgo del lector. Todos los comentarios están basados en opiniones.

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