Notas del Mercado de Algodón Jurgens Bauer 12/17/07

Up, Up and Away?

What are the forces driving cotton anyway?


The NY Cotton market, which as I have said, seems to have been moving more in response to outside markets rather than news of it own accord, rallied from up from it lows on Friday perhaps partly due to “Informa” issuing a bullish acreage estimate for the coming season of 9 million. That projection, along with yet another rally in grain markets set the tone for a momentum based rally that drew cotton prices up from the downside to register a strong close.

Regular readers will note that I have been touting the bear side of cotton because I don’t trust the strength in face of bearish fundamentals. I’m old school in a lot of ways and cannot see beyond the lack of solid exports and the large available cotton stocks held by the US, but exports did show improvement and I’m learning to respect the flow of money. I have found that the money flow really can influence the price dramatically, but not so much as delivery approaches. The next delivery isn’t until March…

Massive fund involvement and the fact that grain markets prices suggest substantially less cotton will get planted encourage more of the same, but I continue to feel like cotton prices will be unsuccessful at trimming the tree and completing the job on the upside demanded by the picture that is developing. However, let me tell you that Friday’s rally is opening my eyes to the potential for a large sustained move on the upside in cotton comparable in stature to what we have already seen in the grains. So, I may just decode to throw in the towel and get long as that seems the path of least resistance.


Support: 6550-6530, 6500-6490, 6440-6425, 6315-6297-6282,


Resistance: 6580-6620, 6760-6780,


Si quiere más información, por favor contáctenos,

Maria Aranda

El equipo de Brokers de Futuros USA
Email: [email protected]

TEL: 312-261-7395

Fuente: MF Global

©2007 Jurgens Bauer & Associates all rights reserved.

Jurgens Bauer


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