Notas del Mercado de Algodón Jurgens Bauer 01/30/08

Futuros USA


It’s a game of follow the leader

Tuesday started out firm enough, but then prices slipped back, giving back a portion of Monday’s recovery. March ended the outcry session at 68.24, down 10. It seemed that wheat, which was again limit bid early on, may have encouraged better cotton values, but once wheat came off, so did cotton. So, it’s the old game of follow the leader, with the grains playing the leadership role.

The scheduled Fed meeting is anticipated to yield another rate cut (.25-.50). If not, then some disappointment may be seen and of course spill into cotton. I expect .25 just to keep things cordial.

I think cotton will likely be quiet on Wednesday unless the leaders decide to make a move. I lean towards March staying between 67 and 69.50, but it needs to show the ability to withstand a bearish assault, should one come. I continue to view the long term outlook favorably as a bull, but wonder if another break on a melt down or spec and fund puke could come.

I’m still bearish on the front, hate March and think it is still worthy of a sale against a long in practically any other month. I especially like the Dec, where selling puts underneath makes sense, however I’m not prepared to throw caution to the wind and aggressively buy calls yet. A part of me still wants to see if there’s more down side. I want to get long for the long haul, but still am wary of a spec puke out. If the leaders drop so will cotton and that action will set the tone for a more attractive situation with which to become aggressive on the long side.

Support: 6775, 6735-6720, 6677-6650, then watch out below

Resistance: 6860-6890, 6910-6940, 7000

Si quiere más información, por favor contáctenos,
Maria Aranda
El equipo de Brokers de Futuros USA
Email: [email protected]
TEL: 312-261-7395

Fuente: MF Global

©2007 Jurgens Bauer & Associates all rights reserved.

Jurgens Bauer


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