Notas del Mercado de Algodón Jurgens Bauer 01/29/08

Futuros USA

 

“The High Tide Floats All Boats”


In other words, cotton again reacted to the positive stock and grain markets (wheat was limit bid). Yes, March cotton closed higher on Monday after starting the day out on the downside, (March settled at 68.31 up 41), but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.23. I believe that March is vulnerable.

In Washington DC today, the Senate Agriculture Committee and the Senate
approved Ed Schafer to be the Secretary of Agriculture. Schafer is a former North Dakota Governor.


The charts suggest that cotton could be quite vulnerable if March goes below 6666. What could take it there would be further pressure in the stock market, but more so weak grain prices. Those markets looked stable today. Although there is still serious concern regarding the economy the recent action taken by the Fed seems to have thwarted the decline and it seems likely that the continued negative headlines are politically inspired. The French Bank “Society General” dumping may have also served to exasperate things. If nothing new comes to the forefront things may settle in and actually start to improve.


The long term prospects for higher cotton prices are valid, the question is will there be another sell off first? For me that hinges upon the grains and what funds do. As a result, I still like the concept mentioned here last week of selling Dec puts underneath and scaling into some long calls in Dec on further weakness. However, I’m still not enamored with March and continue to feel that it should struggle.


For Tuesday, I suggest that, (depending upon outside market influences), cotton should try to move up. If it can make some progress above 6865 it will gun for 6940. If instead it fails, watch for pull backs that could carry to the Monday low of 6745. Any push below 6700 may attract short selling pressure and make longs nervous.


 

Support: 6735-6720, 6677-6650

Resistance: 6850-6860, 6910-6940, 7000

 

Si quiere más información, por favor contáctenos,
Maria Aranda, El equipo de Brokers de Futuros USA
Email: mararanda@mfglobal.com
TEL: 312-261-7395


Fuente: MF Global

©2007 Jurgens Bauer & Associates all rights reserved.

Jurgens Bauer


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