Notas del Mercado de Algodón Jurgens Bauer 01/23/08

Futuros USA

 

You have to be impressed with what cotton accomplished in today’s nightmarish environment. Yes, it trades a lot based upon what’s happening in the grains, but more importantly, it didn’t go limit down as many had thought it would and it did hold and recover pretty well given what transpired. Now, yes, there is still the matter that large long positions could be jeopardized and removed sending the market into a tailspin, but there really isn’t going to be much cotton planted, so in the long run the long side eventually, (even with poor exports) will work. That thought and what we’ve seen a few times now does give rise to a desire to own protective puts though.


Will the trade have an ample supply of bullets to sell into strength? If they have the equities they will. But margin money is becoming a topic.


Anyway today’s lower opening was held somewhat in check from the Fed rate cut, but the economy is far from being out of the woods. Therefore, one must keep abreast of what is going on in outside markets more.


I’m not bullish on March, but am on July and more distant months. Also think buying any month against March makes sense as well. The Goldman roll, and as delivery approaches has me interested in that play, and I’m not alone.


I suspect March will try the upside and end up in a range, but any move below today’s low will chase longs out. I favor using dips to establish long positions.

Si quiere más información, por favor contáctenos,
Maria Aranda
El equipo de Brokers de Futuros USA
Email: mararanda@mfglobal.com

TEL: 312-261-7395


Fuente: MF Global

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Jurgens Bauer


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