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Notas del Mercado de Algodón por: Jurgens Bauer 03/04/2008

Futuros USA

 

Largest One Day Gain Ever!

Synthetics trade on the close: May 9400, Dec 9700


Cotton prices took off in Monday’s trading, locking limit up in screen trading and following through to reach 9400 in May and 9700-9800 in Dec synthetically on the close. It appears as if cotton should be limit bid on the screen for the next day or two unless someone wants to sell into this monster of a market.

Disconcerting to many old school traders and especially industry players is that the mechanism for hedging cotton is broken. Price discovery this morning amounted to whatever the option pit decided value was. Outcry in the futures pits has been closed and with the screen locked limit, that left only the option pit to determine value. I recall back in 1995 when cotton traded $1.00 that we had similar dealings, but today was truly remarkable in that the option pit was so crowded with bodies on several occasions, (and especially the opening) contracts were trading at different prices at different locations in the ring. You just couldn’t see all that was going on, much less get everyone to acknowledge your bids and offers. It was wild!

Accept that the cotton market has changed. Funds are in charge. Money, big money and lots of it is seeking commodities as a “valued investment” opportunity. It’s working. Spec money has seized control.

The limit on Tuesday will be 400 points.

I believe that cotton prices are intended to go the way of wheat and we’ll see crazy volatility, with frequent limit moves. After what I saw today, I think that’s just for starters. And since I don’t chart synthetics, charts aren’t worthwhile other than to acknowledge 98 cents and then $1.117. For me these are now targets.


Si quiere más información, por favor contáctenos,
Maria Aranda
El equipo de Brokers de Futuros USA
Email: mararanda@mfglobal.com
TEL: 312-261-7395


Fuente: MF Global

©2007 Jurgens Bauer & Associates all rights reserved.

Jurgens Bauer


DISCLAIMER


La operación de futuros y opciones involucra riesgos de pérdida sustanciales, por lo que no es conveniente para todos los inversionistas. La información y opiniones contenidas en esta publicación, no constituyen, ni deben ser interpretadas para constituir una oferta de venta o la solicitud de compra de algún producto. La información objetiva incluida en este reporte ha sido obtenida de fuentes consideradas como confiables, aunque no esta garantizada en cuanto a su exactitud, ni tampoco en lo que respecta a su completo significado. No se asume responsabilidad con relación a ninguna declaración, así como en lo concerniente a cualquier opinión expresada aquí incluida. La confiabilidad relativa a la información en este reporte es solamente bajo riesgo del lector. Todos los comentarios están basados en opiniones.

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