Notas del Mercado de Algodón por: Jurgens Bauer 02/06/08

Futuros USA

Cotton prices were lower in early dealings in response to the weaker stock market. Grains were mixed, weak in overnight trading, but during the day beans and corn were flat while wheat took off. It seems a story out of Minneapolis provoked a limit move in Chicago wheat. Apparently Minneapolis wheat was screaming and up a couple of limit moves synthetically. The wheat market is violent and scary.

Now the impact of outside markets, weak stocks, lower energy, flat beans and softer corn, is one thing, but the sharply higher wheat provided a picture that these markets are growing fierce. I recall 1995 when cotton screamed higher. Cotton’s ability to follow the leader is trying to account for which leader to follow.

The charts do not look good. March could easily break lower if it takes out 6650. However, it will be Friday that provides the key. The crop reports are due out in the morning, scheduled for 8:30AM release. Then planting intentions comes out after the option trading ends. There will be a window of opportunity for options to be exercised, or abandoned, so I suspect that volatility levels will remain stronger than usual. In fact it might behoove you to take out protection buying puts (or calls) if you are nervous. That way you can have an insurance policy if things get real crazy.

Personally, I think a melt down is still possible and if one comes that’s when I will get aggressive about owning Dec calls. Otherwise I’m going to stay pretty neutral for the time being. China is closed and exports activity diminished.

Near term, I look for a range in March between 67.00 and 69.50, or even a tighter one between 6750 and 6850.

Support: 67.70, 6735-6720, 6677-6650

Resistance: 68.30-50, 6910-6940, 69.90-7000, 70.85

Si quiere más información, por favor contáctenos,
Maria Aranda
El equipo de Brokers de Futuros USA
Email: [email protected]
TEL: 312-261-7395

Fuente: MF Global

©2007 Jurgens Bauer & Associates all rights reserved.

Jurgens Bauer


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