Notas del Mercado de Algodón Jurgens Bauer 01/04/08

Cotton prices actually closed lower, by 17 points in March, which was the first down day for cotton in quite a while. This was a surprise given the continued strength in grains, (wheat was up the limit again). Makes you kind of wonder if producers will seek to plant any cotton given the environment grains are experiencing.

Commodities across the board are strengthening; markets have been reaching open interest records, likewise options too. Just take a look at the open interest levels reached already in December 2008 options! So, while I still remain a fundamental bear on March cotton, I have to be realistic and stay away from jumping in front of the express train.

There is one trade I will consider though and it is bearish towards March. It is a ratio spread in which one would buy 5 or 6 March 67 puts along with selling a December 76 put. You should be able to accomplish this at flat, or even a net credit. Of course it will only work if March moves lower, but I cannot help but think that with export sales so poor and so much US cotton available, its a strategy that can work. Hey, all that is needed is a catalyst to threaten March and bring pressure to bear. Once values in March begin to drop we could get some sizable profit taking from scared longs and the ball gets rolling.

As for now, Commodities are all the rage and as such will continue to receive money flow. Where will it end? How much further will it go? I don’t know, but what we’ve seen in energy, metals and grains, is brewing in the soft markets, just look at sugar. I think coffee and cocoa along with cotton will trend higher as well.

Si quiere más información, por favor contáctenos,

Maria Aranda

El equipo de Brokers de Futuros USA
Email: [email protected]

TEL: 312-261-7395

Fuente: MF Global

©2007 Jurgens Bauer & Associates all rights reserved.

Jurgens Bauer


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