Notas del Mercado de Algodón por: Jurgens Bauer

 

Futuros USA

Comentario de Algodón

Por: Jurgens Bauer

02/20/08

 

Higher prices remain in the mix, with a lot hinging on outside markets. Delivery comes soon causing bearish focus.

The bulls were helped by the long weekend. Grains were stronger amid talk that China is building oilseed stocks. In fact practically every commodity market on the board was higher causing the CRB Index to show impressive gains.

Cotton volume was brisk and focused mainly in the spreads. The March (H)/May (K) spread widened to 249 then closed at 233 points premium to the May. The spec hedge numbers show specs having increased their net long position to 25.5% from 24.5 last week. Exports are due out on Friday and though to show improvement. First Notice Day (FND) for the March contract is on Monday. That leads me to believe that there is an air of bearishness, as often happens during delivery.

For now, December looks to be still holding the range with support at 75.00 and resistance at 78.50, then 80.60. The 7500 level is important support both technically and physiologically in December. A close below 74.85 should bring 73.50 into play. A break of 73.50 would be very bad technically and likely cause a larger collapse. Therefore, I propose that the range between 75 and 78.50 will be the likely area for Dec to trade in over the near term.


If you take a look at the charts below you should see that a buy signal is close to being provided as the slope of the stochastic are both trying to shift upward and cross. The second chart shows the MACD and should serve to provide further conformation.

Si quiere más información, por favor contáctenos,
Maria Aranda
El equipo de Brokers de Futuros USA
Email: mararanda@mfglobal.com
TEL: 312-261-7395


Fuente: MF Global

©2007 Jurgens Bauer & Associates all rights reserved.

Jurgens Bauer

DISCLAIMER


La operación de futuros y opciones involucra riesgos de pérdida sustanciales, por lo que no es conveniente para todos los inversionistas. La información y opiniones contenidas en esta publicación, no constituyen, ni deben ser interpretadas para constituir una oferta de venta o la solicitud de compra de algún producto. La información objetiva incluida en este reporte ha sido obtenida de fuentes consideradas como confiables, aunque no esta garantizada en cuanto a su exactitud, ni tampoco en lo que respecta a su completo significado. No se asume responsabilidad con relación a ninguna declaración, así como en lo concerniente a cualquier opinión expresada aquí incluida. La confiabilidad relativa a la información en este reporte es solamente bajo riesgo del lector. Todos los comentarios están basados en opiniones.

Publicidad