Notas del Mercado de Algodón por: Jurgens Bauer 12/10/07

The Reversal Looks to be Real  

 

I mentioned the look of a reversal in my previous comments. Certainly cotton prices experienced good buy side interest and it seems obvious that it was more than just a short covering rally.  But even with bottom pickers and funds adding to their longs (probably more because of the grains than anything cotton related) leaves me still doubtful that it can pick up a head of steam sufficient to challenge much beyond the 6600 level in March. Of course that is unless export data serves to show a pick up in the pace of needed sales, but that seems doubtful.

 

By simply verifying that it found support worthwhile and wasn’t going to drop into new lows was enough to convince shorts to cover. New buying emerged after that and prompted by the grains making new highs. This provided a strong close well above 6425 and leads me to believe that additional gains are in the cards. If March can prove itself by reaching above 6500 then 6570 is my next upside target. But if on the other hand 6400 gets taken out then look for disappointment to bring new lows and 6200 into play.

 

I had been calling for potential weakness as some funds might seek to liquidate losing long positions prior to years end. Well, now it appears that funds may instead desire to be long cotton going into the year end.

 

 

Support: 6440-6425, 6315-6297-6282, 6250-6230, 6084-6071

 

Resistance: 6490-6510, 6580-6620

 

 

 

 

Si quiere más información, por favor contáctenos,

Maria Aranda

El equipo de Brokers de Futuros USA
Email: mararanda@mfglobal.com

TEL: 312-261-7395

 

 

Fuente: MF Global

©2007 Jurgens Bauer & Associates all rights reserved.

Jurgens Bauer

 

 

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